FE FOOTBALL EQUITY
VINTAGE TRACK RECORD

What happened after the FE signal?

Compare 2024/25 FE valuation signals with subsequent 2025/26 market value changes.

UNDERVALUED27Median next-year MV +25.0%
OVERVALUED36Median next-year MV -21.1%
DIRECTIONAL HIT RATE66.7%42/63
TOP 10

Undervalued → Market value up

#1
João Pedro
Brighton · Undervalued
+3100.0%
#2
Josh King
Fulham · Undervalued
+2400.0%
#3
Ayden Heaven
Manchester United · Undervalued
+1900.0%
#4
James Hill
Bournemouth · Undervalued
+1050.0%
#5
Justin Devenny
Crystal Palace · Undervalued
+300.0%
#6
Iliman Ndiaye
Everton · Undervalued
+150.0%
#7
Ryan Sessegnon
Fulham · Undervalued
+144.4%
#8
Yasin Ayari
Brighton · Undervalued
+135.3%
#9
Chris Richards
Crystal Palace · Undervalued
+133.3%
#10
Maxence Lacroix
Crystal Palace · Undervalued
+127.3%
TOP 10

Overvalued → Market value down

#1
Luke Shaw
Manchester United · Overvalued
-50.0%
#2
Nick Pope
Newcastle United · Overvalued
-50.0%
#3
Joe Willock
Newcastle United · Overvalued
-50.0%
#4
Manuel Ugarte
Manchester United · Overvalued
-50.0%
#5
Guglielmo Vicario
Tottenham Hotspur · Overvalued
-48.6%
#6
Harry Maguire
Manchester United · Overvalued
-46.7%
#7
Phil Foden
Manchester City · Overvalued
-46.2%
#8
Roméo Lavia
Chelsea · Overvalued
-45.0%
#9
Jack Grealish
Manchester City · Overvalued
-42.9%
#10
Destiny Udogie
Tottenham Hotspur · Overvalued
-33.3%
TOP 10

Cases that did not match the signal

#1
Adam Wharton
Crystal Palace · Overvalued
+100.0%
#2
Marc Guéhi
Crystal Palace · Overvalued
+55.6%
#3
Jurriën Timber
Arsenal · Overvalued
+40.0%
#4
Riccardo Calafiori
Arsenal · Overvalued
+37.5%
#5
Caoimhín Kelleher
Liverpool · Overvalued
+27.3%
#6
Kobbie Mainoo
Manchester United · Overvalued
+27.3%
#7
Rayan Aït-Nouri
Wolverhampton Wanderers · Overvalued
+14.3%
#8
Declan Rice
Arsenal · Overvalued
+9.1%
#9
Keane Lewis-Potter
Brentford · Overvalued
+8.7%
#10
Marcos Senesi
Bournemouth · Overvalued
+4.2%
HOW WE VALIDATE

Validation method

Each vintage signal is frozen at that point in time and compared with the next season market-value move. Later information is not backfilled into the historical valuation, and FAIR signals are excluded from the directional hit rate.